Category Archives: News & Views
Blyleven’s wait is an indictment of the Baseball Writers
Well, it’s about time.
On Wednesday, Bert Blyleven was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, earning his place among the greats of the game. After 14 tries, the Baseball Writers Association of America finally repaired its most glaring mistake, electing a man who most baseball experts concluded was Hall of Fame worthy years ago.
But the BBWAA, in an illogial pattern of voting that is far too common for that organization, only gradually began to see the light. Blyleven slowly crept his way up the voting tally (he captured less than 20% support in his first year on the ballot), until he missed by just five votes in 2010. Had he not been elected this year he would have had just one more chance via the writers.
Blyleven was the only man to strike out 3,000 batters not in the Hall, and he was also the only pitcher to toss at least 50 shutouts and not be in Cooperstown. The bizarre oversight perpetrated by the writers has been cleared away, but it doesn’t erase the silliness of their voting methods, nor the fact that he and his family had to wait more than a decade to see this day.
Blyleven was known for his excellent curveball – one of the best in the history of the game – which may have been one reason he was overlooked by the writers. Pitchers who could throw heat make up most of the Hall of Fame roster, while Blyleven’s efficiency was less sexy. His bender may have buckled the knees of enemy batters, but it must have been hard to see from the press boxes.
Blyleven is the first starting pitcher elected to the Hall since Nolan Ryan in 1999. While the Baseball Writers showered Ryan with more than 90% of the vote in his first year of eligibility, Blyleven has only gained induction due to the efforts of knowledgeable baseball fans and former players and executives from inside the National Pastime.
“I don’t know why he hasn’t gotten in, it’s puzzling,” Hall of Fame starter Jim Palmer said in 2007. Palmer won fewer games than Blyleven, but pitched on many more winning teams than his fellow right-hander. Ryan’s career ERA+ (a stat that measures ERA against his league and adjusts for other variables such as the park he pitched in) was 112. Blyleven’s was 118. When he retired, only two pitchers had struck out more batters than Blyleven. Both of those men – Ryan and Steve Carlton – had top-notch fastballs. Somehow, the amazing fact that Blyleven used off-speed pitching to set down more than 3,700 batters was ignored by the baseball writers.
Now, Blyleven will join the rest of the Class of 2011 and be inducted in Cooperstown on July 24. When he steps to the podium to deliver his speech, we wouldn’t blame him for asking, “What took so long?”
Alomar and Gillick reunited as Hall of Fame Inductees
Pat Gillick has always liked to have Roberto Alomar around. This summer, he’ll get another chance to spend time with Alomar, when both are part of the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Class of 2011.
Twice in his role as general manager Gillick acquired Alomar, an All-Star second baseman who garnered 10 Gold Gloves and four Silver Slugger Awards in his 17-year career. Alomar moved around a lot, playing for seven teams in eight different stints. Gillick, never afraid to make a bold move to help his teams, first grabbed Alomar in one of the biggest trades in baseball history in 1990.
On December 5, 1990, Alomar and San Diego teammate Joe Carter were dealt to Gillick’s Blue Jays for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez. All four players were All-Stars, making it a headline-grabbing deal.
“We just got one of the best players in the game,” Gillick chirped in reference to Alomar. “‘[He's a] guy who can make a team go.”
Alomar did just that, batting near the top of the order for Toronto while helping them to back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. For Gillick, who gained election to the Hall of Fame via a special veterans committee last December, having a player like Alomar on his team was special. When he was later hired to be the GM of the Orioles, Gillick didn’t hesitate to get one of his favorite players back on his side.
After the 1995 season, Alomar was a free agent, one of the most sought-after on the market. Gillick, in his first full season as the O’s general manager, inked Alomar to a three-year deal, bringing him to Baltimore to be his second baseman. As an Oriole, Alomar continued to excel, pairing with Hall of Fame shortstop Cal Ripken Jr. to form one of the best double play duos in baseball history.
In 2002, Gillick was honored by the Blue Jays when he was added to the Level of Excellence, the highest honor that can be bestowed by that franchise. Six years later, Alomar was similarly honored. Both men are also members of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.
In July the two men will be on the same team for the third time – as members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.
Cloud hanging over McGwire now engulfs Palmeiro
The Baseball Writers corrected an injustice in 2011, finally electing Bery Blyleven to the Hall of Fame. They also continued to make a statement about steroid users on the ballot, refusing entry to Rafael Palmeiro, a member of the 3,000-hit club. Slugger Mark McGwire, who tearfully admitted to use of illegal substances during his career just a few years ago, also failed to be elected.
McGwire and Palmeiro are the two highest profile players eligible for the Hall of Fame who have been placed on the ballot. McGwire has received almost exactly the same number of votes in each of his four years on the ballot – about 23%, far below the required 75% needed for election.
Palmeiro reached two coveted baseball milestones, 3,000 hits and 500 homers. He’s one of only four players to reach both magical numbers, joining Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Eddie Murray, all of whom are enshrined in Cooperstown. But those achievements are apparently not going to sway the Baseball Writers, who are obviously punishing Palmeiro for his suspension in 2005 after MLB announced he had failed a drug test. The incident put a black mark on Palmeiro and served as an embarrassing final curtain call for the Cuban-born star, who retired just weeks after being outed.
Palmeiro claimed he was innocent of any wrongdoing, and pledged to fight the results of the test, but little he said or did mattered in the court of public opinion. His case was considerably damaged by the fact that during the highly publicized Congressional hearings on steroids in 2004, he had adamantly denied ever using steroids or an other performance-enhancing drug. Like George H.W. Bush’s infamous “read my lips” promise to not raise taxes, Palmeiro’s words came back to bite him.
Given that McGwire continues to languish far from the 75% level, Palmeiro’s chances to ever be honored in Cooperstown seem slim. In a few years other players shrouded in steroid suspicion, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, will find their names on the Hall of Fame ballot. Both of those players accomplished even more in their careers, but neither has ever been formally convicted of any wrongdoing.
How the Baseball Writers choose to deal with Bonds and Clemens will be interesting, and it will have a great impact on the Cooperstown chances of both McGwire and Palmeiro.
Why Jack Morris is still waiting for Hall call
For the first time since 1999, the Baseball Hall of Fame will induct a starting pitcher this summer, but it won’t be Jack Morris. Instead, Bert Blyleven will get the honor, a much deserved one.
But Morris, who won more games (by far) than any other pitcher in the 1980s, and who pitched one of the greatest games in baseball history in Game Seven of the 1991 World Series, is still waiting for his Cooperstown call. With Blyleven now off the ballot, Morris’s candidacy will take center stage over the next three years – his final three chances via the Baseball Writers.
The debate over Morris and the Hall of Fame has steadily grown into one of the most heated topics among hardcore baseball fans on the internet. Blogs, chat boards, fan forums, and baseball statistics sites are packed with articles, studies, arguments, and comments over Morris’s worthiness for Hall inclusion. Though it seems everyone has an opinion on Morris, there are several reasons the former pitcher is still waiting to receive the call from the Hall of Fame:
Too many runs
Morris posted an Earned Run Average of 3.90 over the course of his 18-year career. That figure would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame. Currently, Red Ruffing, an ace for the Yankees teams of the 1930s, holds the mark with a 3.80 ERA. Ruffing is considered one of the weaker pitchers in the Hall, having earned his spot because he played on one of the best offensive teams in history, a club that made annual trips to the World Series.
Even though Morris pitched in an era when run scoring was higher than the generation right before him, his ERA still looks bad compared to other starting pitchers in and out of the Hall. His ERA+ (that is his ERA adjusted for the era he pitched in and park effects) is 105, meaning his ERA was about 5% better than league norms. Of HOF pitchers who won at least 200 games (there are 40), Morris’s ERA would rank only ahead of Catfish Hunter and Rube Marquard, two pitchers elected largely on the strength of their peak value. Luis Tiant, Orel Hershiser, Jerry Koosman, Vida Blue, Frank Tanana, Dennis Martinez, and even Rick Reuschel are some of the 200-game winners of the last 40 years who have posted better ERA+ marks than Morris.
No big seasons
As we’ve seen with other starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame, a few great seasons can vault you into immortality. Morris never had that type of season, something he had in common with Blyleven, incidentally. Though he won 20 games three times, he never dominated in any season or handful of seasons. In 1984, when Detroit roared out to a 35-5 start, Morris seemed poised to etch his name in the history books. He started the season 10-1 and was one pace to win more than 30 games, but as he often did, the big right-hander went into a mediocre stretch, and failed to win even 20 games, finishing at 19-11. Probably his best season was 1981 when he shared for the American League lead with 14 wins when the season was shortened by a labor strike. That strike cost him a shot at his first 20-win season, and it saw him post the lowest ERA of his career – 3.05.
Not dominant enough
When it came to dependability, Morris was a gem. He started at least 34 games in 10 of 11 seasons from 1982-1992, and as a result he was often among leaders in the counting stats: innings, complete games, quality starts. But despite being a workhorse, Morris only led his league in strikeouts once, innings once, complete games once, and wins twice. He also led the league in shutouts in 1986, one of his better seasons, but that year Roger Clemens was the dominant starter in the league. Morris fails on the so-called “black-ink test”, not having led his league in that many categories, and never in ERA.
Lacking in quality
Though far from a perfect stat, quality starts measures the ability of a starter to give his team a chance to win the game, to keep them in it. Typically, a starting pitcher will have a few more quality starts each season than wins, games where he pitched in some tough luck. A quality start is any game in which the pitcher goes at least six innings and allows three earned runs or fewer.
In the case of Morris, he made 527 starts in his career and 297 of those were quality starts. That’s a percentage of 56.4%. We have quality start data going back to 1920, so it covers a large portion of the pitchers in the Hall of Fame and all of those who pitched in the post-expansion era (1961-present), the era in which Morris can most easily be compared. Of pitchers who won at least 200 games and who spent their entire careers after 1920, there have been 68 pitchers who won at least 200 games. Of those, Morris ranks 42nd in quality start percentage. Tom Seaver is at the top with more than 70% of his starts being quality starts, and Morris’s mark would rank at the bottom of Hall of Fame pitchers if he were elected. Non-Hall of Fame 200-game winners who rank ahead of Morris in quality start percentage include Charlie Hough, Jim Kaat, Chuck Finley, Bob Welch and others.
If Morris was a workhorse who chewed up innings and gave his team a chance to win, as his supporters often claim, why is his quality start percentage so ordinary when compared to Hall of Famers and non-Hall of Famers who pitched as long as he did?
One World Series game isn’t enough
In Game Seven of the 1991 World Series, Morris was brilliant, as clutch as any pitcher ever has been in the Fall Classic. As a result, he out-dueled John Smoltz and won the game in 10 innings, 1-0 for the Minnesota Twins. That performance is often mentioned by Morris’s supporters, so much so that it almost works against him. There has begun to rise a cry that a pitcher shouldn’t be elected simply because he performed well in one big game. Otherwise, Kirk Gibson and Joe Carter would have an argument for election.
Bad attitude
During his career Morris was famously gruff with the media. At one point when he was struggling in the second half of 1984, he refused to speak to the press. He had a run-in with a reporter in Cleveland and also Minnesota. Though it’s not a major reason he’s being left out of the Hall, one has to believe that if Morris had been a lovable teddy bear like Kirby Puckett, he might win a few more supporters among the writers who covered him.
Five-man rotation and the Designated Hitter
Bert Blyleven is the fist starting pitcher who made his major league debut after 1967 who has been elected to the Hall of Fame. Think about that. In the course of more than 40 years since 1967 – two years before man walked on the moon – no starter has debuted in the big leagues and gone on to be a Hall of Famer, until Blyleven.
There are a slew of pitchers who debuted in the 1950s and 1960s who found their way to Cooperstown, many of them having won 300 games. But in the early 1970s, most teams abandoned the four-man rotation, which meant that the #1 starter on the staff lost nine starts a season. Not coincidentally, we’ve had just four 300-game winners since. Two of those pitchers were all-time greats (Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens), the other two had to pitch well into their 40s to barely reach the 300-mark (Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson).
For the starters who debuted in the 1970s, Blyleven (287) and Morris (254) lead the pack in wins, Dennis Martinez won 245, and then there are six pitchers with more than 200. Had Morris pitched in a four-man rotation, how many more wins would he have accumulated? Given a dozen years in a four-man would have gained Morris 108 more starts, if he had won half, he would have reached the magical 300 mark. Blyleven would have easily surpassed it and been elected much sooner. But the switch to the five-man in the 1970s gave us the illusion that is was harder to win 20 games and march toward 300, when actually it was a lack of opportunity. Since 1968, just eight pitchers have debuted and won 250 or more games. Compare that to the six-year stretch of 1962-1967, when ten pitchers debuted and went on to win 250 or more, six of them winning 300.
Another change in the game made an impact on Morris and other starting pitchers who came of age in the 1970s – the DH. The designated hitter was introduced in 1973 in the American League. Morris spent his entire career facing lineups with nine legitimate big league hitters in them, which certainly inched his ERA a bit toward that 3,90 level that so many of his critics point to. The DH radically changed the offensive numbers in the AL. In 1972, the ERA in the AL was 3.06. 15 years later, in the middle of Morris’s career, the ERA was 4.46. A 3.90 ERA in 1987 equates to a 2.67 ERA in 1972.
Is it just a coincidence that Blyleven and Morris are the only pitchers to emerge between 1967 and the present to get a sniff of the Hall of Fame? Or were there other factors involved, including the elimination of the four-man rotation and advent of the DH, that has made them look less Hall-worthy?
There are many reasons why Morris should get into the Hall of Fame, but that’s the topic for another article. Right now, the former ace is still waiting. His numbers wouldn’t be the very worst of the pitchers in the Hall, but close. Ruffing and Jesse Haines are right there at the bottom of the HOF pack, as well. But somewhere the line has to be drawn between in and out. Someone has to rest right on that line or near it. Does that make them less a Hall of Famer? The debate will rage on.
Phillies “Big Four” could be best ever
Lebron, Wade, and Bosh? The Phillies have done one better than the Miami Heat.
With the acquisition of free agent left-hander Cliff Lee last week, the Philadelphia Phillies established a foursome of starting pitchers that rival the greatest in the history of the game. Based on their 2010 numbers, the Phillies rotation could make history next season.
Lee joins fellow southpaw Cole Hamels and right-handers Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt to give Philadelphia a vaunted quartet of hurlers, any one of whom could be an ace. Halladay is the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner and won another Cy Young in the American League. Lee won the 2008 AL Cy Young, and Oswalt has finished in the top five in voting for that award five times. He was sixth last season. Hamels, the youngest of the four (he turns 27 two days after Christmas), already has 60 wins to his credit and was the NLCS and World Series MVP in 2008 when he helped lead the Phils to the World Series title.
Last season all four pitchers posted an ERA+ of at least 130 while striking out at least 185 batters. Given their established career levels and assuming they remain healthy, in 2011 they should be able to match that performance. In the history of baseball no team has had more than two pitchers who accomplished that in the same season. In 2010, the Phillies became just the 14th team to have two pitchers match that criteria, when Halladay and Hamels did so. Oswalt also did it in 2010, but he split part of the season between Houston and the Phillies.
How rare is a season by a starter who posts an ERA+ of 130 or better and fans 185 or more? Just 78 pitchers have done it in the expansion era (since 1961). Halladay has done it four times in his career, Hamels and Oswalt twice, and Lee did it for the first time in 2010.
That sort of dominance doesn’t necessarily translate into wins – Oswalt and Hamels won 13 and 12 games respectively in 2010 – but it does ensure solid quality starts most of the time. The Phillies could get 130 starts from their “Big Four” in 2011, and if they pitch the way they are capable of, it could be an historic season.
As we’ve seen with other teams that had multiple aces in their rotation, the teammates can feed off each other. The A’s All-Star trio of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito motivated each other in the 1990s. As did the Braves staffs that featured future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. The Diamondbacks had Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in the early 2000s, and Schilling joined Pedro Martinez in Boston. But no team has had a foursome as talented as this in years, if ever.
The 2011 Phillies may prove to be the most slump-proof team in baseball history. It’s hard to see how the team could get through one rotation of the Big Four without winning at least one game. Whomever ends up as the #5 starter (it appears it will be Joe Blanton, who won nine games for the Phillies in 2010) will have a serious case of headline envy. The Big Four have a combined total of 13 All-Star appearances, six 20-win seasons, 10 top-five Cy Young Award finishes, a World Series MVP award, two NLCS MVP awards, a no-hitter, and a perfect game.
With two ace righties and two ace lefties, the Phillies are poised to make another run at the World Series and the Big Four may etch their names into baseball history in 2011.
Feller was great pitcher, greater American
When a much different America suffered its “9/11″ moment, Bob Feller – the best pitcher in baseball – didn’t hesitate to take action. On December 8, 1941, one day after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, Feller voluntarily enlisted in the U.S. Navy. At the age of 23, already a six-year veteran of the major leagues, Feller was at the height of his fame and pitching brilliance. But his decision to enter the military wasn’t difficult.
“We needed heroes, fast,” Feller explained after the war. The unselfish Feller was one of those heroes. He died on Wednesday, December 15, 69 years after the attack that propelled the U.S. into World War II.
An All-Star pitcher for the Cleveland Indians, Feller was one of the highest paid players in the game. He had a 3-C draft deferment as the sole supporter of his family, so he didn’t have to enlist. He could have sat out the war. It was never an option for the patriotic, strong-willed farm boy from Van Meter, Iowa.
“We were losing the war,” Feller said. “I never thought about returning to baseball, I just did what I had to do, what a lot of guys did.”
When Feller arrived in Chicago on December 9th to be sworn in at the Great Lakes Naval Training Center, his father was dying from cancer back on the family farm in Van Meter. Like millions of other American men, Feller was processed and assigned for duty. He served initially in the Navy’s physical fitness program which was organized by former boxing champion Gene Tunney. But Feller quickly grew impatient and requested to be transferred to gunnery school. He was placed on the U.S.S. Alabama as chief of a gun crew.
During the war, Feller served first in the icy waters of the North Atlantic, as the Alabama escorted American ships threatened by German submarines. Later, he took part in eight separate invasions in the South Pacific against the Japanese. At his battle station he commanded 24 men in his gun crew. He served in the Navy for more than three-and-a-half years, missing the meat of his baseball career: all of 1942, 1943, and 1944, as well as most of 1945.
Feller received five campaign ribbons and eight battle stars for his service in the U.S. Navy in World War II. Less than two weeks after the Japanese surrendered in August of 1945, Feller was discharged. He wasted little time in getting back to baseball. Two days after traveling from the Great Lakes Naval Training Center to Cleveland, Feller was on the mound for the Indians.
He received a frenzied reception in Cleveland. So many people called the ballpark to make ticket arrangements that the switchboard broke down. Ultimately, 47,000 fans flooded into Municipal Stadium for the game on August 24th. Prior to the game, Feller was presented with a jeep and other presents from the team and fans. The governor of Ohio attended the contest, as well as Cleveland diamond legends Tris Speaker and Cy Young. Feller didn’t disappoint the huge crowd. He fanned the first batter of the game – Detroit’s Jimmy Outlaw – prompting the fans to give him a standing ovation. Showing no rust at all, Feller was in top-notch form as he struck out 12 Tiger batters en route to a complete game, four-hit victory. He struck out Outlaw to end the game and was carried off the field.
The following season, Feller was still slinging it – as he enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career. The 27-year old won 26 games, struck out a career-high 348 batters, while throwing 10 shutouts. He was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility in 1962, and spent 48 years as a member of that institution. He never missed an opportunity to express his pride in having fought in the war. He pressed the Hall of Fame to change his plaque to indicate that he’d missed three full seasons due to World War II.
“I’m very proud of my war record, just like my baseball record. I would never have been able to face anybody and talk about my baseball record if I hadn’t spent time in the service.”
In Crawford, Red Sox are getting unique talent
The Boston Red Sox completed a headline-grabbing one-two punch at baseball’s winter meetings this week when they agreed to terms with free agent Carl Crawford. Earlier at the meetings, the Sox traded for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Neither of the new additions have celebrated their 30th birthday yet, and Boston fans can expect many years of the slugging Gonzalez driving in Crawford.
Crawford has spent his entire career with Tampa Bay, where he’s collected lots of hits, put up a high batting average, stolen tons of bases, and hit lots of triples while also showing some punch as a home run threat now and again. He’s done those things at such a pace that he belongs with a select group of players in baseball history. Indeed, the Red Sox are getting a unique talent in Crawford.
In 2010, Crawford collected 184 hits, led the league with 13 triples, swiped 47 bases, and hit 19 homers, a career best. In the history of baseball, only 16 players have reached 180 hits, 10 triples, 45 stolen bases, and 10 homers in a single season. Impressively, it was the fourth time Crawford accomplished the feat.
Here’s the list of the seasons that match that criteria:
| Player | HR | H | 3B | SB | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tris Speaker | .383 | 10 | 222 | 12 | 52 | 1912 | 24 | BOS | AL |
| Honus Wagner | .354 | 10 | 201 | 19 | 53 | 1908 | 34 | PIT | NL |
| Willie McGee | .353 | 10 | 216 | 18 | 56 | 1985 | 26 | STL | NL |
| Chuck Knoblauch | .341 | 13 | 197 | 14 | 45 | 1996 | 27 | MIN | AL |
| Frankie Frisch | .337 | 10 | 208 | 11 | 48 | 1927 | 28 | STL | NL |
| Max Carey | .329 | 10 | 207 | 12 | 51 | 1922 | 32 | PIT | NL |
| Johnny Damon | .327 | 16 | 214 | 10 | 46 | 2000 | 26 | KCR | AL |
| Tim Raines | .320 | 11 | 184 | 13 | 70 | 1985 | 25 | MON | NL |
| Ben Chapman | .315 | 17 | 189 | 11 | 61 | 1931 | 22 | NYY | AL |
| Carl Crawford | .307 | 19 | 184 | 13 | 47 | 2010 | 28 | TBR | AL |
| Carl Crawford | .305 | 18 | 183 | 16 | 58 | 2006 | 24 | TBD | AL |
| Bobby Bonds | .302 | 26 | 200 | 10 | 48 | 1970 | 24 | SFG | NL |
| Carl Crawford | .301 | 15 | 194 | 15 | 46 | 2005 | 23 | TBD | AL |
| Jose Reyes | .300 | 19 | 194 | 17 | 64 | 2006 | 23 | NYM | NL |
| Lou Brock | .299 | 21 | 206 | 12 | 52 | 1967 | 28 | STL | NL |
| Lou Brock | .298 | 12 | 195 | 10 | 53 | 1969 | 30 | STL | NL |
| Jose Reyes | .297 | 16 | 204 | 19 | 56 | 2008 | 25 | NYM | NL |
| Carl Crawford | .296 | 11 | 185 | 19 | 59 | 2004 | 22 | TBD | AL |
| Hanley Ramirez | .292 | 17 | 185 | 11 | 51 | 2006 | 22 | FLA | NL |
| Lou Brock | .285 | 15 | 183 | 12 | 74 | 1966 | 27 | STL | NL |
| Jose Reyes | .280 | 12 | 191 | 12 | 78 | 2007 | 24 | NYM | NL |
| Jimmy Rollins | .274 | 14 | 180 | 12 | 46 | 2001 | 22 | PHI | NL |
| Juan Samuel | .272 | 15 | 191 | 19 | 72 | 1984 | 23 | PHI | NL |
Crawford eclipsed the mark of three seasons previously held by Hall of Famer Lou Brock, another left fielder. In fact, Crawford has a great deal in common with Brock. Both players were lightning fast. Both players were left handed batters who had strong wrists. Brock had great power, once hitting a home run into the center field bleachers at the Polo Grounds, no small feat. It remains to be seen if Crawford will hit more home runs later in his career, but the switch to Fenway Park won’t hurt. Other left-handed batters who’ve moved to Fenway have seen their power numbers soar. The short foul pole in right field helps with homers, and the Green Monster in left field usually results in more doubles and a higher batting average.
Crawford not only has unique skills that have rarely been seen in baseball history, he’s also uniquely suited to perform well in Fenway. However, in nearly half a season’s worth of games in Fenway, Crawford has hit just .275 with four homers. That may have much more to do with him facing the tough Boston pitching staff than it does the ballpark. Pedro Martinez, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett have all stymied Crawford to varying degrees.
Like Brock, Crawford is not an ideal leadoff man because his on-base percentage is just average (.337 in his career vs. .332 league average). That’s because, like Brock, Crawford walks infrequently. One reason that goes unmentioned is that opposing pitchers don’t want to risk giving the speedy Crawford a free pass, so they are more likely to toss the ball across the plate. It’s safe to say that his low walk total has less to do with poor pitch selection than it does the strategy of opposing pitchers. In Fenway, should Crawford take advantage of the short right field seats and improve his power numbers, pitchers could avoid the strike zone more. As a result, he’d earn more walks, have more chances to steal bases, and be even more productive as an offensive weapon.
It remains to be seen where the Sox will place Crawford in their lineup, but #3 seems to be the best position if they want him to increase his power production (imagine some of those triples becoming homers, and a lot of those singles becoming doubles). If Crawford can do that, he’ll get more walks, even with Gonzalez, Ortiz, or Pedroia batting behind him. Best case scenario, the Red Sox new left fielder increases his batting average by 15 points, hits 40+ doubles (ala Wade Boggs) and increases his homers to 25 or so. If he does that, the Red Sox win, and Crawford will win – a lot of new hardware.
Jeter faces tough odds in his late 30s
After a very public contract negotiation, Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees have come to terms on a three year deal that will pay the shortstop $17 million per year. The contract contains a clause which ensures that Jeter will be the highest paid shortstop in the game during that period.
Yankee fans are universally celebratory. Yankee brass is happy to have their captain tucked away for the time being, and avoiding a drawn out contract squabble is a plus. The Yanks also avoid the stomach-turning possibility of seeing Jeter in an Angels or Red Sox uniform. Jeter admitted that he had no intention of talking to other teams. Regardless, Yankee Nation breathes a sigh of relief.
In June of 2011, Jeter’s 17th season in pinstripes, he will turn 37 years old. Being the shortstop for the Yankees seems to be what Jeter was born to do, but few players have ever played shortstop for any team at that age. In fact, over the last 50 years, which happens to encompass the entirety of baseball’s expansion era, only eight shortstops have started regularly for their teams after the age of 36. In order for the Yankees to get their money’s worth, Jeter will have to play much better than any of those shortstops did in their late 30s. Given that he had his worst season ever in 2010, that may prove difficult.
The eight shortstops to start regularly at the age of 37 or older since 1961 are:
Luis Aparicio
Maury Wills
Dave Concepcion
Larry Bowa
Alan Trammell
Ozzie Smith
Barry Larkin
Omar Vizquel
These eight shortstops combined for 19 seasons after the age of 36 where they were regulars. BY far the most successful of the group is the most recent: Omar Vizquel, who was a regular at the ages of 37, 38, 39, and 40. Twice, in 2004 at the age of 37, and again in 2007 as a 40-year old, Vizquel posted an OPS over 700. Only Ozzie Smith (in 1992 at the age of 37) and Barry Larkin (40 ears old in 2004) reached 700 in on-base percentage plus slugging. The vast majority of the shortstop seasons at age 37 and older saw the player post measly offensive numbers. In most cases, these shortstops held onto their starting jobs because they were still adequate (or in the case of Vizquel and Ozzie) or very good with the glove. Few offered any sort of offensive production. Only Larkin slugged for a mark as high as .400 in a season after the age of 36.
Only one shortstop in that group collected as man as 40 extra-base hits in a season, and the most hits in any season by a shortstop over the age of 36 is 171. Not one “senior citizen” shortstop hit higher than.295.
In 2010, Jeter won the Gold Glove Award, but few believe he’s really the best defensive shortstop in the league. He earned the award on reputation. His offensive numbers plummeted, which is to be expected when compared to the other shortstops at the age of 36 and older over the last half century. Whereas catchers begin their decline after the age of 32 (with very few exceptions), shortstops start the decline at 36. In 2010, Jeter’s slugging percentage dove to .370, 82 points below his career mark. The highest slugging percentage by a shortstop at the age of 37 was .388 by Vizquel in 2004. Jeter will have to buck the trend that has seen shortstops rapidly lose their power after the age of 36. The most homers hit after the age of 36 has been eight, by Larkin.
Underlying these numbers is an obvious bad omen for the Yankees: another reason there have been so few effective shortstops who played into their late 30s is that they don’t stay healthy. The wear and tear of the middle infield position takes a toll on their body. Concepcion, Larkin, Trammell, Bert Campaneris, Royce Clayton, and Mark Belanger are a few of the shortstops who physically just couldn’t do it at the same level anymore once they reached 36-37.
Only Aparicio, Vizquel, Wills, and Ozzie were able to stay health and play every day for multiple seasons at an advanced age for a shortstop. All of those shortstops were smaller than Jeter, who more closely resembles the physical mold of guys like Cal Ripken Jr. and Robin Yount, who switched to less demanding positions in their earlier 30s to extend their careers.
It remains to be seen if Jeter will buck the odds and be productive into his late 30s. Certainly the Yankees will reap the benefits of his 3,000th hit and the goodwill he brings to the game and their historic aura. But how much of that will offset a steep decline in his production, which history tells us is likely?
Five moves that helped land Gillick in the Hall
Normally, trading a future Hall of Fame player is the death knell for a major league general manager. But when Pat Gillick did it he laid the groundwork for historic success. In 1999, Gillick, with impressive credentials on his resume, replaced Woody Woodward as General Manager of the Seattle Mariners. The team’s superstar center fielder Ken Griffey Jr. was grumbling about the lack of support on the roster and issued a trade demand. Woodward famously told reporters, “I don’t want to be the guy remembered for trading Ken Griffey Jr. away from the Mariners.” Gillick had no such fear.
Three months into the job, Gillick pulled the trigger on a deal that sent Junior packing. It wasn’t the first time the baseball lifer had dealt superstar players, and as it had before, Gillick’s vision proved to be excellent.
On Monday, Gillick was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, receiving 13 votes from the 16-man Committee on Baseball Veterans. He will be inducted in ceremonies next July in Cooperstown, joined by any players elected by the baseball writers in January.
Gillick won three World Series titles as general manager, and in his 27 years in that role his teams reached the post-season 11 times. He enjoyed 20 winning seasons as a GM while making some of the shrewdest personnel decisions in the game during his tenure. Here’s a look at five that went a long way to landing Gillick in the Hall of Fame:
January 24, 1985: Snatching a closer for next-to-nothing
The Blue Jays were an excellent team in 1984, maybe the second best team in baseball behind the Detroit Tigers who ran away with the pennant. With a solid framework in place, Gillick needed one important position filled: closer. When Toronto lost designated hitter Cliff Johnson to free agency they were awarded a compensation pick from the team Johnson signed with: the Rangers. Gillick snapped up pitcher Tom Henke, a 6’5″ righty known for his blazing fastball and penchant for wildness. Toronto eased the bespectacled Henke into his role in 1985 and he responded with 13 saves and a 2.03 ERA. He finished seventh in Rookie of the Year voting, but more importantly, the Jays were set at the backend of their bullpen for years to come. Over the next seven seasons, Henke saved 204 games while striking out more than a batter per inning. He culminated his career as a Blue Jay with a World Series title in 1992, saving 32 games. Gillick had acquired a closer that gave him eight seasons of excellence, all in compensation for an aging DH that he didn’t want anymore.
December 5, 1990: Blockbuster deal includes four All-Stars
For all their success in the 1980s (two division titles and third-best winning percentage in the league), Gillick’s Jays had still not won a pennant. The team was coming off a second-place finish in 1990, but Gillick wasn’t satisfied. On December 5, 1990, he shook up the annual winter meetings for the first of many times when he sent two of his All-Stars, shortstop Tony Fernandez and first baseman Fred McGriff, to the San Diego Padres. In return, Gillick acquired right fielder Joe Carter and second baseman Roberto Alomar. Carter was coming off his first season with the Padres but hadn’t really taken to the team and struggled a bit, batting just .232 with a career-low .391 slugging percentage. Despite that, Carter was a clutch hitter, driving in 115 runs for San Diego. Alomar was the best young second baseman in the game, a player coveted by Gillick. “When we got him we changed the makeup of our lineup,” Gillick remembered years later. “He made our team go.” To get Carter and Alomar, Gillick had the guts to part with McGriff, one of the elite power hitters in the game. Fernandez was a personal favorite of the GM, a player he’d trade to re-acquire later in his career. The trade was the pivotal step that led to the Blue Jays winning back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. Carter drove in 100 or more runs in six of his seven seasons in Canada, delivering the home run that won the 1993 Series. Alomar was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner in each of his five seasons playing for the Jays. He left Toronto in 1996, signing a free agent contract with the Orioles, a deal that reunited him with Gillick, who had moved on to Baltimore.
February 10, 2000: Junior sent packing to Cincinnati
By the time Gillick was hired to be the GM in Seattle a month after the end of the 1999 season, the Mariners clubhouse was filled with problems. Ken Griffey Jr. was coming off two of his best seasons, but he was unhappy. The starting rotation lacked an ace, and the bullpen was thin. Though he was just 23 years old, free agency was looming for shortstop Alex Rodriguez, who was sure to demand the biggest paycheck in the game. In ’99 the team had posted a mediocre 79-83 record, mostly because their pitching was lackluster. With Griffey, A-Rod, and Edgar Martinez, the club had one of the best lineups in the game, but they hadn’t been to the post-season in two years. Gillick wasted little time in overhauling the team. In the span of a week in December he signed free agents John Olerud, Kaz Sasaki, Mark McLemore, and Stan Javier. In January he inked free agent pitcher Aaron Sele. Then, on February 10 he granted Junior Griffey his wish, shipping the disgruntled center fielder to Cincinnati. In return, the M’s got four players, but the key man in the deal for Gillick was Mike Cameron, a journeyman outfielder known mostly for striking out a lot. Gillick inserted Cameron in center where he won two Gold Gloves in his four seasons as a Mariner. More importantly, the move cleared out the salary and the headache of Griffey and it came at the perfect time in the future Hall of Famer’s career. In Cincinnati, “The Kid” became “The Old Man”, suffering numerous injuries. He was hurt so much that Cameron hit more homers and drove in more runs in the four years after the deal than Griffey did. Gillick’s other free agent acquisitions (McLemore, Javier, Olerud, Sele, and Sasaki) proved critical to the immediate success of the Mariners. After trading away the greatest player in franchise history for seemingly very little, Gillick led Seattle to two consecutive American League Championship Series. In very short order, Seattle fans were asking “Griffey Who?”
November 30, 2000: Mariners lure Ichiro across the Pacific
Folllowing the success of the 2000 season, his first as GM in Seattle, Gillick wasn’t afraid to reshape his roster some more. The opportunity came when Japanese star Ichiro Suzuki was made available to negotiate with major league clubs. Seattle bid $13 million to win the rights to deal with Ichiro. At the time the move was criticized by some in the U.S. who believed that position players like Ichiro couldn’t make the transition from Japan to Major League Baseball. Ichiro had won seven batting titles in Japan, and in an exhibition series against MLB stars in 1998 he had batted .380, impressing many who saw him. Gillick was confidant that Ichiro was especially suited to bring his talents to the majors. For a bargain price of $14.2 million, Gillick signed Ichiro for three years. In his rookie campaign, Ichiro dazzled fans with his speed, batting ability, throwing arm, and baseball instincts. His addition to the club sparked the Mariners to their best start in franchise history. The team just kept going, winning a major league-tying 116 games on their way to their second straight AL West title. They advanced to the ALCS before losing to the Yankees. Ichiro won the batting title, led the league in hits, won a Gold Glove for his play in right field, and earned both the Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player Award. In his ten seasons in Seattle, Ichiro has collected 200 hits every season, adding a second batting title. In 2004 he established a new MLB record with 262 hits.
November 7, 2007: Lidge swiped from Astros
Gillick didn’t draft very many of the key players who made up the core of the Phillies, but he did add a couple of important pieces. Lidge was the most important. Heading into the off-season, Gillick knew his club needed an experienced closer in the bullpen. Former starting pitcher Brett Myers had won the closer spot by default in 2007 but Gillick knew that for the team to advance in the post-season, the Phillies would need a true stopper. Lidge had an unsettling year in 2007, having lost his closer role early in the year before regaining it. Then he suffered an injury to his oblique muscle on his left side in mid-season. With the injury hanging over his head, the Astros felt it was time to move the 30-year old closer. Upon completing the deal, Gillick’s assistant, Ruban Amaro Jr. piped, “We’re getting one of the premier closers in the game.” Indeed they were, as Lidge made a complete recovery from the injury in 2008, saving 41 games and posting a stingy 1.92 ERA. The right-hander struck out an incredible 92 batters in less than 70 innings and saved some of his best work for the post-season. In 9 1/3 innings for Philadelphia that October, Lidge allowed just one run while saving seven games. he was perfect for the season – converting 48 saves in 48 opportunities. The final piece in the puzzle, Lidge was on the mound as the Phils won the World Series.
Santo long overdue for Hall of Fame honor
After battling his entire life against incredible odds, Ron Santo died on Thursday, December 2. An All-Star third baseman for the Chicago Cubs, Santo thrilled fans with his home run power and exuberant emotion on the diamond. In 1969, the season that the Cubs came the closest to winning a post-season birth, he was known for jumping in the air and clicking his heels after a Cub win.
Santo played his entire big league career with diabetes, even keeping the disease from the Cubs in fear that it would jeopardize his roster spot with the club. But there was never any doubt about Santo’s place in uniform. He was the greatest third baseman in franchise history. Santo hit 342 career home runs and won five Gold Gloves. Playing all but one season with the Cubs, Santo never made it to the post-season. He hit 30 homers and batted .300 four times each, despite playing much of his career in an era where pitching ruled the game. He paced the National League in walks four times. He topped NL third basemen in putouts seven times, assists seven times, and double plays four times. He was the best third baseman in the National League in the 1960s and challenged Brooks Robinson for the honor as best hot corner man in the entire game.
After his playing career, Santo suffered numerous health problems: heart attacks, bypass surgery, amputation of his legs, and a battle with cancer that ultimately claimed his life. Throughout it all, Santo remained a positive man who delighted Chicago fans with his love for the National Pastime.
In one of the the worst cases of Hall of Fame snubbing in the history of that wonderful organization, Santo failed to earn induction despite his obvious qualifications. It was puzzling to many who saw him in his prime. His detractors, whom apparently numbered enough to keep the Baseball Writers and Hall of Fame Veterans Committee from electing him, claimed his career was too short to have reached major statistical milestones, he never played on a winner, or that his career batting average was too unimpressive.
But Santo’s numbers stack up well against third basemen already enshrined in the Hall of Fame. His career OPS+, which is on-base percentage plus slugging adjusted for the era and ballparks played in, is 125. There are 11 players in the HOF categorized as third basemen, not counting Negro Leaguers. Santo’s OPS+ is better than six of them: Paul Molitor (122), Jimmy Collins (113), George Kell (111), Freddie Lindstrom (110), Pie Traynor (107), and Brooks Robinson (104). But Molitor, Collins, Kell, Lindstrom, and Traynor all hit for a .300 average for their careers, something HOF voters obviously value over power and the ability to get on base. If voters dug deeper, they would learn that adjusted for his era, Santo’s career batting average is comparable to those of Kell, Collins, and Traynor.
A statistical tool called WAR (wins above replacement) measures how many wins a player is above the baseline of big league performance. It takes into account offense, defense, and baserunning, Santo’s WAR is 66.4 for his career. Compared to HOF third basemen, that ranks only below Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Paul Molitor, and Brooks Robinson. WAR rates Robinson at 69.1, boosting him just above Santo based on his defense. But Santo rates higher than HOFers Frank Baker, Collins, Traynor, Kell, and Lindstrom. Santo’s 342 homers rank behind only Schmidt and Mathews. Santo drove in more runs than all but four Hall of Fame thirdsackers.
Santo’s first regular season was 1961, and for the next 13 years he was one of his league’s most productive players regardless of position. During the 1960s only two players drove in more runs than Santo in the National League: Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. His Wins Above Replacement total for the decade trailed only Mays, Aaron, and Roberto Clemente.
Left fielder Billy Williams, who like Santo was in his prime during the 1960s, was his teammate on the Cubs. For the decade, Williams hit fewer homers and drove in fewer runs than Santo, and his OPS of .850 was just slightly better than Santo’s mark of .844. Yet Williams is in the Hall of Fame, Santo is not.
Yet another stat called Batting Runs, developed by famed Sabrmetrician Bill James, makes the Hall of Fame case even stronger for Santo. For the 1960s, Santo’s total of 254 batting runs (a measure of his overall offensive production) ranks 12th in all of baseball. It’s a total that’s higher than that of Williams, Orlando Cepeda, and Willie Stargell, other sluggers who are in Cooperstown and played their primes during that decade. According to James, Brooks Robinson accumulated 112 batting runs in the 60s. The question: do Santo’s extra 142 batting runs make up for the gap between his defensive play and that of Robinson? Santo may not have the dazzling defensive stats Robinson put up, but he still won five Gold Gloves for his work around the bag at third.
Looking at the overall pool of third basemen in baseball history, there have been 102 players who have played as many as 1,200 games in the majors with at least half coming at the hot corner. When you rank those 102 players by just about any statistical method, Santo is always in the top 10. In OPS+ he is seventh, trailing Schmidt, Mathews, Chipper Jones, Brett, Baker, and Boggs. In homers, RBI, walks, slugging and on-base percentage, Santo rates in the top ten. If the Hall of Fame is supposed to honor the best players, it can be presumed that one of the top ten third basemen in history (by several measures) deserves to be enshrined.
Santo doesn’t belong with the upper crust of Hall of Fame third basemen: Schmidt, Mathews, Brett, and Boggs. But he certainly compares well to the next group: Molitor, Robinson, and Baker. And when compared to the rest of the third basemen in the Hall (Collins, Kell, Lindstrom, Traynor), Santo is markedly superior. His day in Cooperstown never came while he was alive, but he deserves to be honored posthumously, and it’s long overdue.
Felix Hernandez finally gets respect as best starter in baseball
Much was made about Felix Hernandez’s 13-12 won/loss record leading up to the announcement of the 2010 A.L. Cy Young Award winner. Many felt King Felix might not get the honor since it would be the first time w recipient got the award with so few victories. But Hernandez ran away with the honor and rightfully so. This is one time that the baseball writers got it right. Hernandez has been baseball’s best starting pitcher for the last two seasons, and it hasn’t even been that close.
A starter can really only do one thing – pitch well enough to keep his team in position to win the game. I know in the National League they can swing the bat, but let’s not quibble over that. Most pitchers hit more like your Grandma Ruth than Babe Ruth. Fielding can also play a factor, as can the ability to keep runners close on base. Some pitchers really shine in those areas, but for the purpose of this discussion on the best starting pitchers, let’s stick to PITCHING.
For the last two seasons, 2009-2010, Felix Hernandez has been the best starting pitcher in the game, period. He finished second in Cy Young Award voting in 2009, when Kansas City’s Zack Grinke earned the honor on the strength of a phenomenal first three months of the season. But King Felix wasn’t far off.
A Quality Start is when a starting pitcher throws at least six innings and also allows three earned runs or less. It’s not a perfect measure of a starting pitcher, but when a hurler logs a Quality Start he’s put his team in a good spot to win. A look at the numbers reveals that Hernandez has been stellar at doing that over the last two seasons. The righty has tossed 59 quality starts in 68 overall games started. The next closest pitcher to that figure is Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals, with 50. Hernandez’s challengers as the best pitcher in the AL are far behind him in QS over the past two years. Greinke and C.C. Sabathia each have 47, while Detroit’s Justin Verlander has 44. Roy Halladay, who pitched for Toronto in 2009 and Philly last year, also has 47 QS.
The top 12 in Quality Starts for 2009-1010 are:
- Felix Hernandez 59
- Adam Wainwright 50
- Ubaldo Jimenez 49
- Tim Lincecum 48
- Cris Carpenter 47
- Roy Halladay 47
- Zack Greinke 47
- Jered Weaver 47
- C.C. Sabathia 47
- Josh Johnson 46
- Wandy Rodriguez 46
- Dan Haren 46
No one is even close to Hernandez, and it’s not simply a one year dominance. In 2010 he started 34 games and logged 30 QS. In ’09 he had 29 QS in 34 starts. Amazingly, in 2010 he had 20 Quality Starts in his last 21 starts of the season.
One has to go back a long time to find any starting pitcher who accumulated as many as 59 quality starts in a two-year stretch. In 1992-1993, Greg Maddux put up 59 QS in 71 starts, three more starts than Felix had. Not since the era of the four-man rotation has a pitcher made more than Felix’s 59 quality starts in consecutive seasons, and it took a Hall of Famer to do it. In 1974-1975, Catfish Hunter made 60 quality starts for Oakland, but it took him 80 starts to do so, a 75% ratio. The last two years, Hernandez’s quality start percentage is 86.7%.
It wasn’t Hernandez’s fault that his Seattle teammates couldn’t scratch across more runs for him in 2010, in fact the 13 wins are quite impressive considering how abysmal the M’s were. Nothing should diminish Hernandez’s amazing performance over the last two seasons, and since he’ll only be 25 years old in 2011, much more is to come from baseball’s best starting pitcher.
Evaluating the Hall of Fame’s Expansion Era Ballot
Next week the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of a veterans committee election that considers 12 candidates from the Expansion Era. It’s the first election in the new Hall of Fame balloting process that has the voting separated into three ballots based on era: Expansion (1973-present), Golden (1947-1972), and Pre-Integration (1871-1946). Every year one of the ballots will be addressed. A small group (16) will vote in seclusion during the winter meetings. Any candidate receiving 12 votes will be elected.
The new process is an interesting idea, and no doubt it’s been constructed because the Hall of Fame wants to see people (living people, preferably) elected to the Hall of Fame. For the most part, previous incarnations of the veterans committee have resulted in very few inductees. Following Bill Mazeroski’s controversial selection in 2001, the veterans committee failed to elect anyone for six years. From 2008-2010, after the Hall tinkered with the committee process for the umpteenth time, the committee elected eight people. However, only one was a player and only half of them were living. Obviously, something had to be done to spice things up a bit.
The HOF wants the veterans committee to elect worthy candidates who are appealing to the masses. It helps a lot if they’re also breathing. That way, fans will trek to Cooperstown to see them get their plaques. Suffice to say, Barney Dreyfuss didn’t attract a crowd when he was elected in 2008.
Of the 12 former players, managers, and executives on the Expansion Era ballot, 10 are alive. Let’s look at each of them and rate their chances for Hall of Fame election.
Vida Blue
A southpaw with a heavy fastball and a knee-buckling curve, Blue accomplished a lot in his career: he was the ace (or one of the aces) of three World Series championship teams, he struck out 300 batters in a season, he pitched a no-hitter when he was 21 years old, he won an MVP and Cy Young Award, and he won 20 games three times. But those feats all occurred before he turned 27 years old. After the age of 26, Blue was basically a .500 pitcher (99-94 with a 3.72 ERA). His 209-161 career mark is pedestrian by HOF standards. Like Dwight Gooden in the 1980s, Blue seemed like a Hall of Fame talent when he was a young fireballer, but he took a detour on the way to Cooperstown. The lefty really doesn’t have chance to be elected.
Dave Concepcion
He was a nine-time All-Star and five-time Gold Glove winner in an era when shortstops were expected to field every ball in their region and maybe hit .275 with 10 homers if they could muster it. Some will say Concepcion didn’t hit enough even for a shortstop, and they may be right, but Ozzie Smith got in with pretty miserable offensive numbers, ditto Rabbit Maranville. The question of his candidacy comes down to whether or not his defense was great enough to offset his offensive deficiencies. According to a stat called Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR), which is widely accepted to be the best measurement of defensive play, Concepcion gets a mark of 1.1, or about one game above replacement level for his entire career. Ozzie’s dWAR was 21.6, and several contemporaries of Concepcion had a better number. Luis Aparicio, a light-hitting Venezuelan shortstop like Concepcion, had a dWAR of 11.5 and his offense was boosted quite a bit by his ability to steal bases. To his credit, Concepcion hit about .350 in five NL Playoff Series, and he won an All-Star Game MVP, but his overall resume just doesn’t scream Cooperstown. His career OPS+ was 88, or 12% below an average offensive player. His highest OPS+ in any season was 116. Ozzie’s career OPS+ was a meager 87, but he stoled 250 more bases than Davey. Concepcion was a decent shortstop for a long time on a very good team. That’s his legacy, but it doesn’t mean he’s a HOFer. Having said that, he’ll probably get a few votes from this committee, which includes former teammates Johnny Bench and Tony Perez. But Concepcion should fall shy because when the voters look at those offensive numbers they have to admit his shortcomings. If he somehow manages to get elected he’ll be the worst shortstop in the Hall of Fame, by quite a big margin, and supporters of Maury Wills and Alan Trammell will have a lot to scream about.
Steve Garvey
The rise of Sabermetric theory may have done more to hurt Steve Garvey’s HOF chances than any other player of his generation. A generation of fans and writers now view Garvey’s career numbers as empty .300 seasons with modest RBI numbers. In some sense they are correct, given his opportunities in the middle of the lineups he played on, Garvey didn’t drive in that many runs. Had Garvey been able to squeeze out three seasons at the end of his career with 150 or so hits per, he’d have erased any debate about his candidacy by reaching 3,000 hits. But he fell off a steep cliff at the end and stopped at 2,599 hits. He has some gaudy credentials though: MVP votes in eight straight seasons, 10 All-Star nods, a long consecutive games played streak, and a .338 average with 11 homers in five post-seasons. His negatives include dismal defense and a poor (to say the least) reputation off the field. He garnered 40% support or more from the baseball writers three times, and I’d bet that will help his chances with this smaller committee. Garvey will be a strong candidate, and if he’s elected, he won’t be the worst first baseman in Cooperstown. See Jim Bottomley for that distinction.
Pat Gillick
It can be difficult to determine which executives belong in the Hall of Fame. Gillick was at the center of the success that Toronto enjoed when they established themselves as one of the best franchises in the game in the mid-1980s anfd into the 1990s. It’s easy to forget how bad the Blue Jays were in the beginning. Gillick was there for that, too. But back then expansion teams didn’t have the same advantages that later expansion teams did. The Jays and Mariners were the ugly step-sisters to the rest of the American League. Gillick took his lumps for five years, but by then he had stocked his farm system with loads of talent, most of it from Latin America. After those first five seasons with the Blue Jays when he was building from scratch, Gillick’s teams posted 20 winning seasons in 22 years, with at least 89 victories 15 times! Pretty damn good. Having said that, I don’t think this committee will reward Gillick with election. Most of the executives in Cooperstown worked for the Yankees or Dodgers for a long time, and though Gillick earned a paycheck from the Yanks as a scout for a couple of years, that’s not enough.
Ron Guidry
Late start, short career, left-handed. Those factors demand comparison to Sandy Koufax, which seriously hurts the case for Ron Guidry as a Hall of Famer. The skinny southpaw was a winner: 154-67 (.697) during his peak nine-year stretch. Guidry’s best season was better than any of Koufax’s best seasons. In 1978, Guidry posted a 208 ERA+, but he never approached that number again, and unlike Koufax, Guidry did not retire from an injury, he retired after losing his effectiveness. He was 4-0 in the 1977 and 1978 post-seasons, but his resume isn’t quite long enough. At his peak, he was as good as probably 15-20 pitchers in the Hall of Fame, but his cumulative numbers aren’t great enough.
Tommy John
The opposite of Guidry, John was good or very good long enough to win 288 games. But he was rarely ever considered the best pitcher on his team nor was he seriously ever mentioned as a dominant starter. The lefty relied on precision, guile, and stamina to forge a lengthy career while pitching for several winning teams. He really had three careers: (1) quality pitcher with the White Sox, (2) excellent starter for the Dodgers who suffered an infamous arm injury and won lots of games for great teams, and (3) bionic-armed veteran who caught on with the Angels and Yanks and chewed up innings while pitching okay when he was healthy. For the last eight years of his career he was 74-80 with a 4.13 ERA! He really has George Steinbrenner to thank for reaching 288 wins. George gave John a roster spot for four seasons at the very end, otherwise John would have about 260 wins and probably wouldn’t be on this ballot. The baseball writers never gave John more than 31% of the vote. He won’t get in via the veterans committee either. If he does, Cooperstown would have to usher in Jamie Moyer, Frank Tanana, and Jim Kaat, each of whom was better than John.
Billy Martin
To a lot of us who grew up watching baseball in the 1970s and early 1980s, it may seem odd to think of Billy Martin as a Hall of Fame manager. That’s because most of what we heard of Martin involved bar fights, obscenities, and hirings/firings. Martin was volatile, to say the least, but he did possess a burning desire to win. He injected that will to win into every clubhouse he managed, even though it eventually proved cancerous and led to his being fired. When he first rode into a new town, he turned things around almost immediately. In his first managerial season with Minnesota in 1969, he guided a team that had finished seventh the previous year to 97 wins and a division title. In Detroit he goaded an aging team of veterans to a division title. In New York he won two pennants and a World Series title before George fired him (the first time) and asked him back (the first time). In Oakland, Billy schooled a small group of talented young players into a division winner in 1981. Only in Texas did he fail to finish in first place, but even there he improved the Rangers by 27 wins in his first season, a phenomenal turnaround. He was exiled from Texas after he pissed off the front office with the force of his personality and the disturbing flaws in his personal behavior. That was ultimately the story everywhere he went. Martin deserves a lot of credit for his ability to rally a team around his diamond philosophies (stealing bases and complete games). But his two pennants in 16 seasons aren’t enough to get him into Cooperstown.
Marvin Miller
Without this man the history of baseball would be quite different. Free agency, long-term contracts, arbitration – all of these off-the-field developments were a direct result of Miller’s influence. Miller’s impact is at least as important as the contributions of other pioneers in the Hall of Fame. Miller’s visionary leadership of the Players’ Union shaped the game we watch today. For that, he should be honored in Cooperstown, and he’ll probably get that honor this year. He’s one of the strongest candidates on the ballot.
Al Oliver
Oliver is a member of what might be called the “Hall of the Nearly Great Enough.” These players, which include contemporaries Rusty Staub, Bill Buckner, Dave Parker, Vada Pinson, and Stave Garvey, and later stars like Harold Baines and Gary Sheffield, were very good for a long time, but failed to reach important milestones that traditionally signify automatic HOF election. Oliver is one of the best of this group. He won a batting title. He was an outstanding defensive player for much of his career, both in the outfield and later at first base. He was a strong baserunner in his prime, and he could hit. Man, could he hit. One former player who faced Oliver in the National League said that Oliver hit the ball harder more consistently than any other batter in the game. Oliver had the reputation for leading the league in “hard outs” nearly every year. Like others in his group, Oliver had more than 2,700 hits and then he tailed off, unable to reach the 3,000-hit plateau. Mid-career he seemed a good bet to make it. He certainly wouldn’t be the worst outfielder inducted into the HOF, but given that he didn’t do ONE THING really well he doesn’t stand out like a home run slugger or basestealer would. For that reason, Oliver won’t make it. He was really good, though, and he deserves to be remembered.
Ted Simmons
Ted Simmons scored more runs than all but four Hall of Fame catchers. He drove in more runs than every HOF catcher except Yogi Berra, and he collected more hits than any other catcher in the Hall of Fame (2,472). And it’s not like he accumulated a bunch of those numbers at another position: Simmons played essentially two seasons as a DH and a season and a half as a first basemen. Not that different than Johnny Bench, his contemporary in the National League during his prime. The problem is that Simmons suffers in comparison to Bench, which isn’t fair. That would be like keeping Roberto Clemente out of the Hall because he wasn’t Hank Aaron. Both were great players to different degrees. Simmons was a great catcher in his prime which lasted a LONG time. From 1971-1980 his OPS+ was 131, which is better than any peak stretch of similar length by a HOF catcher other than Bench, Cochrane, and Dickey. Simmons wasn’t as bad a defensive catcher as his reputation, and he compares favorably to Gary Carter who has already earned election. Simmons deserves induction and probably will make it if the committee really does their homework. But don’t count on that.
Rusty Staub
If there was a Hall of Fame for gentlemen, Staub would be in it. Similarly, if it was the Hall of Popularity, “Le Grand Orange” would have gone in on the first ballot. He was loved everywhere he played, and for good reason: he could hit. He’s still the only player to collect as many as 500 hits for four different franchises (Houston, Montreal, Mets, Detroit). He was one of the better pinch-hitters in the history of the game and he made a living at driving in runs from third base with less than two outs. Staub’s candidacy is hurt by two important factors: (1) he played for teams that rarely if ever got to the post-season, and (2) he never had a monster season in the triple crown categories. Staub just hit year after year after year. Here are his OPS+ marks for his 10-year peak from 1967-1976: 153, 132, 166, 139, 147, 137, 118, 112, 131, 137. His OPS+ for that decade was 131, ranking in the top ten in baseball. He ended up in the 2,700-hit zone like Oliver and thus he stands outside the HOF on that test. His career OPS+ of 124 is better than that of Tony Perez, who played on teams where he had far more RBI opportunities and who won multiple World Series rings. It’s also higher than that of Pete Rose. Staub was really good. He won’t get elected, but he deserves to be on this ballot.
George Steinbrenner
Few owners gained as much attention as Stienbrenner, which is funny because when he bought the Yankees for the bargain price of $8.8 million in 1973 he was quoted as saying that he intended to be a “hands-off owner.” George was anything but hands-off in his 37 years as owner of the Yankees. In his first 22 years he changed managers 20 times! Steinbrenner employed 11 general managers over the years, and frequently undermined their authority by dealing with player contract negotiations personally. But the personal touch paid off, as “The Boss” won seven World Series titles and 11 pennants. His aggressive signing of free agents helped push salaries up while also encouraging other team owners to put more resources into their franchises. The result was good for baseball. If there were a Mt. Rushmore of baseball owners, Steinbrenner’s face would be one of the four faces on it, along with Branch Rickey, Walter O’Malley, and Bill Veeck. He should receive enough votes to earn election.
